A new nationwide analysis from Bader Law highlights a complicated and often contradictory picture of vaccine safety, public confidence, and the growing consequences of declining childhood vaccination rates. The study compiles federal data, state-level reporting, and adverse event records to map where risks are highest and how shifting attitudes are shaping public health outcomes.
The findings show a country where most adults still trust long-standing vaccines, yet skepticism around COVID‑19 shots has spilled into broader hesitancy. At the same time, adverse event reporting varies sharply by age, gender, and political geography. The result is a landscape where both vaccine side effects and the risks of non-vaccination are rising in parallel.
COVID‑19 Vaccines and Myocarditis: What the Data Shows
The study begins with one of the most debated topics in vaccine safety: myocarditis linked to mRNA COVID‑19 vaccines.
Key data points include:
- Over 2,000 U.S. children and teens have died from COVID‑19, including 700 infants under age one.
- A U.S. FDA adviser has publicly linked 10 child deaths to COVID‑19 vaccination, citing myocarditis as a factor.
- Young males ages 12 to 30 face the highest myocarditis risk after vaccination.
- 81 percent of myocarditis patients recovered within about three months.
- People infected with COVID‑19 are over seven times more likely to develop myocarditis than vaccinated individuals.
- 61 percent of myocarditis cases occurred in men.
- Only 1.07 percent of post-vaccine myocarditis cases required hospitalization.
- Fatal myocarditis after vaccination was extremely rare at 0.015 percent.
The study notes that Moderna’s vaccine showed the highest myocarditis rate among the vaccines examined, though still far below the myocarditis risk associated with COVID‑19 infection.
Public Confidence in Vaccines Is Splintering
While Americans overwhelmingly trust long-established vaccines, confidence in COVID‑19 vaccines remains fractured.
According to the data:
- 83 percent of adults are at least somewhat confident in the measles vaccine.
- 82 percent express confidence in the pneumonia vaccine.
- 74 percent trust shingles and flu vaccines.
- Only 56 percent feel somewhat confident in COVID‑19 vaccines.
Political differences are stark:
- 87 percent of Democrats express confidence.
- 55 percent of independents express confidence.
- 30 percent of Republicans express confidence.
This divide is already influencing childhood vaccination patterns.
Nonmedical Vaccine Exemptions Are Rising
The study identifies a steady increase in nonmedical exemptions among kindergarteners.
Key findings:
- 3.6 percent of kindergarteners received exemptions in the 2024 to 2025 school year, up from 2.2 percent a decade earlier.
- Medical exemptions remain below 1 percent nationwide.
- Nonmedical exemptions rose in 36 states and Washington, D.C.
- 138,000 kindergarteners were exempt from one or more vaccines.
The ten states with the highest nonmedical exemption rates include:
| State | Percent of Exempt Kindergarteners |
|---|---|
| Idaho | 15.1% |
| Utah | 10% |
| Oregon | 9.7% |
| Alaska | 9% |
| Arizona | 9% |
| Nevada | 6.7% |
| North Dakota | 6.7% |
| South Dakota | 6.7% |
| Michigan | 6.5% |
| Wisconsin | 6.3% |
Measles Cases Surge as Vaccination Rates Fall
The consequences of declining vaccination rates are already visible.
The study reports:
- Kindergarten vaccination coverage for major vaccines fell to 92.1 to 92.5 percent, below the 95 percent threshold needed for herd immunity.
- 286,000 children attended school without documentation of completing the MMR series.
- As of December 2025, the U.S. recorded 1,958 measles cases, a dramatic rise from previous years:
- 2024: 285 cases
- 2023: 59 cases
- 2022: 121 cases
- 2021: 49 cases
Age breakdown of 2025 cases:
- Under 5: 26 percent
- Ages 5 to 19: 41 percent
- Over 20: 32 percent
Vaccination status:
- 93 percent were unvaccinated or had unknown vaccination status.
- 3 percent had one MMR dose.
- 4 percent had two doses.
Texas led the nation with 803 cases, driven by an outbreak that began in a close-knit West Texas community and spread to other under-vaccinated areas.
Adverse Event Reporting Shows Gender and Political Patterns
The study also highlights disparities in adverse event reporting:
- Of 45,843 adverse events after one vaccine dose:
- 31,018 were reported by females.
- 14,688 were reported by males.
- Between 2020 and 2025, 7,259 fatal one-dose cases were recorded:
- 4,348 male deaths
- 2,847 female deaths
States with the highest total deaths:
- Kentucky: 759
- Texas: 509
- Michigan: 372
- California: 320
- Florida: 292
States with the lowest:
- D.C.: 6
- Wyoming: 10
- Vermont: 13
- Delaware: 13
- Alaska: 17
The study also notes that states with higher Republican voting shares reported more adverse events. A ten percent increase in Republican vote share correlated with a 5 percent increase in reported COVID‑19 vaccine adverse events and a 25 percent increase in severe adverse events.
A Complex National Picture
The data compiled by Bader Law paints a nuanced portrait of vaccine risk and vaccine refusal. While serious adverse events remain rare, they are not evenly distributed. At the same time, rising nonmedical exemptions are fueling outbreaks of diseases once considered under control.
The study suggests that until confidence in vaccines stabilizes, the United States will continue to face a dual challenge: managing legitimate safety concerns while confronting the public health consequences of declining vaccination rates.
